As a member of the IEEE ( Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers), I receive the IEEE Spectrum every month. This months issue is especially relevant to the issues that I have been addressing for four years. I received the link below yesterday. Non-members will probably not be able to access the documents, however, the preface is copied at the bottom of the email and the 49 page document is attached.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-ev-transition-explained-2659623150
The first 13 pages deal with the difficulties of scaling up battery production and things that are out of the purview of NY State policy makers. However, a discussion of transmission issues that can be addressed by NY State policy makers starts on page 14. I copied one caption from it, in italics below. If it looks exactly like one of my emails, keep in mind that I did not read this until last night. The caption relates to Palo Alto and they are having issues with their heat pumps. A search of “Average Winter Low Temp Palo Alto” yields the following:
“Daily high temperatures are around 60°F, rarely falling below 52°F or exceeding 71°F. The lowest daily average high temperature is 57°F on December 28. Daily low temperatures are around 46°F, rarely falling below 36°F or exceeding 54°F.”
There are, however, a few potholes that need to be filled to meet the city’s 2030 emission objectives. At a February 2022 meeting of Palo Alto’s Utilities Advisory Commission, Tomm Marshall, assistant director of utilities, stated, “There are places even today [in the city] where we can’t even take one more heat pump without having to rebuild the portion of the [electrical distribution] system. Or we can’t even have one EV charger go in.” Peak loading is the primary concern. Palo Alto’s electrical-distribution system was built for the electric loads of the 1950s and 1960s, when household heating, water, and cooking were running mainly on natural gas. The distribution system does not have the capacity to support EVs and all electric appliances at scale, Marshall suggested. Further, the system was designed for one-way power, not for distributed-renewable-energy devices sending power back into the system. A big problem is the 3,150 distribution transformers in the city, Marshall indicated. A 2020 electrification-impact study found that without improvements, more than 95 percent of residential transformers would be overloaded if Palo Alto hits its EV and electrical-appliance targets by 2030.
In a climate that is on average 20 degrees to 40 degrees warmer than most of NY State during the winter, they are encountering the issues in the caption above. In NY State, those issues will be magnified by at least a factor of three. Heat pumps in NY State will use two to three times as much peak power and proportionally that much extra energy when compared to Palo Alto. It will not be “a few potholes”. NY State is going to experience sink holes that are going to swallow up large sections of the utility system and render them non-functional.
There are ways to address vehicle charging load to minimize its effect on the utility system. Lower charging rates that use the full night time idle period of a vehicle to reach full charge will not use much more current than a kitchen appliance. At a 70 amp charge rate, my car will gain 200 miles of range in three to four hours. It usually sits for 9 – 10 hours at night so the charge rate at 30 amps would fully charge the vehicle in nine hours. Over one million vehicles, the lower charge rate will reduce line losses by about 280 megawatts within peoples homes and probably one third to one-half additional on the transmission and distribution lines for a total of 370 – 420 megawatts of reduced generation needed for charging just to compensate for line loss. The higher charge rates will also heat the components of the utility system and increase their resistance which will further increase losses. The in-home figure was actually measured while charging my car. The vehicle charging issue can be overcome with intelligent planning and limiting vehicle charge rates without impacting peoples lives. The heat pump issue cannot be resolved without a major overhaul of the entire utility system and that will not be achievable for at least 60 years, as mentioned in previous emails.
Climate scientists should stick to climate issues and not prescribe policies that will have effects on infrastructure for which they have no understanding. The CLCPA as it is written, along with building electrification, is going to be a nightmare for NY State.
Rich
