Elon Musk wants to sell cars and batteries. He is not considering climate effects or grid effects and he is hoping that the politicians aren’t aware enough to understand the issue. His viewpoint is skewed but he is correct about the lack of generation. Regarding the Combined cycle plant efficiencies, I was working from the numbers at the link below. Info from the link is below it in italics. I used 55% which is near the high end of that range but well below the 65% manufacturer’s stated efficiency.
With today’s concerns about energy and environmental impact, the natural gas combined cycle power plant (CCPP) plays a leading role in the power complexes of the world. CCPPs are the most efficient power plants operating on the power grids throughout the world with an efficiency ranging between 45% and 57%. These power plants come in all sizes. In this chapter we will be emphasizing the larger plants ranging in size from 60 to 1500MW.
I would rather estimate on the low to mid range because often equipment doesn’t operate at the manufacturers ideal specs due to temperatures, pressures, maintenance, etc. Gas turbines are particularly sensitive to air inlet temperatures so they run less efficiently on hot summer days. If I can get the numbers to work at the lower end of the efficiencies, then the plan is a really good idea. The numbers that I presented at the lower efficiencies work and using EV’s on that system will greatly reduce energy usage and carbon emissions. Even at the low range of efficiency of 45% from the link, there is still almost a 10% improvement in efficiency and a 32% improvement in energy usage and carbon reduction. If the generation efficiencies end up being higher, then even better. Further, as the EV’s are an inevitability because of the vehicle manufacturers and also because of the state mandates, we have to do something rational where the math works.
One of my major issues with the CLCPA and all of the renewable planning is that they are doing all of their estimates at the ideal operating parameters of everything and in many cases, beyond the ideal. One of the problems that I highlighted at the Business Council of NY Keynote address was the 72% overestimation of solar energy output in the CLCPA documents. The real world doesn’t work at the ideal so their results are going to be worse than what they are estimating and what they are estimating doesn’t even work. That’s one of the reasons that I use the word “fantasy” to describe the CLCPA. As an example that many people can relate to, Apple isn’t downloading phone updates continuously because their software was perfect the first time. More often than not, it is because someone found a security flaw in the existing version. That is also the reason for Beta testing versions of many products before they are even released. Even after Beta testing, flaws are found in many products.
One thing that I have learned over the past 45 years is that reality does not always work according to the best laid engineering plans, even if they are well thought out and double checked. Something unanticipated usually pops up.
When I do estimating for my business on new projects, I always assume that something isn’t going to work exactly as I have planned so I leave a little wiggle room for errors. If something goes less optimally than expected, I am covered. If it works exactly as planned, then even better. It has served me well over the past 40+ years.
Rich